Capital spending after the tax reform

Passage of the Trump tax reform through Congress has generated some excitement about the outlook for capital spending over the next few years.
In this report I argue that the excitement is largely misplaced and that a sensible base-case forecast for capex on equipment and software might be about 6% a year for the next two years.  The odds favor 2018 being firmer than 2019.
This relatively muted outlook for capex is, however, not bearish the stock market — relative to what might be implied by a capex boom.  Indeed this take fits into a theme I have been pushing: that the macro pointlessness of the tax reform is actually a feature, at least for the market, and taken in isolation.  FH-180103