Fed put is probably expired

While the Fed is raising interest rates, the monetary policy backdrop for equities is not yet outright negative.  Inflation is below target, so the Fed is — for now — tolerant of above-trend demand growth and declining unemployment.  This lowers the risk of an accident soon.  However, the Fed would prefer to avoid a late-cycle demand boom, which would aggravate recession risks.  Accordingly, it would like to see tighter financial condition and is probably more  tolerant of a meaningful decline of equity prices than at any point in the past cycle.  It may be time to retire the idea of a Fed put, or at least one struck near the current market. FH-171125